How will the economic crisis affect China’s political stability? How will an estimated 20 million laid off migrant workers affect the social structure? These questions have recently been widely speculated upon by both the domestic and international media, often with fairly sensationalist headlines hinting at widespread chaos.
The truth, however, is that the situation throughout China is still fairly stable, and it will probably stay that way. The China Law Blog explores the question of political stability and concludes that the Central leadership will likely remain very firm because people perceive the government to be doing a job at managing the crisis. Similarly, as CLB has repeatedly pointed out, most labour disputes tend to stem from specific interest-based grievances at a particular workplaces, and the disputes rarely reach to the level of systematic critiques of the political structure, and nor should they. Furthermore, as Han Dongfang has pointed out, many laid off workers have already returned to their home provinces, and are scattered throughout the countryside. Although this will bring pressure upon rural governance capabilities, the situation is hardly conducive to the types of connected protests that would be needed to challenge “social stability”.
A look at Henan, one of China's most populous provinces, makes this clear. According to the ACFTU, there are 21.5 million Henan rural residents working away from home. Some 9.5 million of those migrant workers returned home before the Lunar New Year, 6.6 million from outside the province. Currently, 2.5 million of those migrant workers are still at home, most likely due to the economic crisis.
By looking at those numbers, we can speculate that roughly 90 percent of migrant workers still have work or are looking for work, while 10 percent are at home temporarily. As mentioned, this mass of workers at home in the countryside may challenge local governments, but will hardly pose any threat to Beijing. A recent trip to Dongguan confirmed that society seemed to be functioning rather normally, and the Telegraph's Malcolm Moore also seemed to find a more optimistic picture than commonly portrayed when visiting the manufacturing areas of Shanghai and Zhejiang . However, what about those migrant workers who are back home in their villages?
In a recent essay in Southern Weekend (南方周末), commentator Zhang Ming, professor at the People’s University, questions the ACFTU’s ability to help these migrant workers who are the target of the ACFTU’s new “Operation to Aid Ten Million Migrant Workers” (千万农民工援助行动). Zhang questions whether the ACFTU will have the organizational foundations in the countryside needed to help these people. Indeed, if the Henan figures are similar in other exporting labour provinces, then one would really wonder whether the ACFTU is the most appropriate organ to help these workers (although whether the ACFTU’s main role should be “helping” workers in times of difficulty is also an issue of debate).
In short, governance capabilities will be tested in the countryside, while the situation should look comparably brighter in the cities. While it’s important to highlight the difficulties caused by the financial crisis, it’s just as important not to go overboard into hysterical predications of widespread unrest triggering unprecedented chaos. A recent essay making the rounds on the Internet by Sun Liping, a translation of which can be found at inside-out china, makes the point very eloquently. In the essay, Sun suggests that the greatest threat to China in not “social unrest” (社会动荡), but rather “social decay” (社会溃败). Since preventing social unrest has been the overriding priority of the government and the Party (稳定压倒一切), social problems have gone unresolved and the Party is increasingly incapable of reforming itself or controlling corruption, in part, because all it’s energies are spent on ensuring “social stability”. Seen from this angle, if the Party and the ACFTU over-exaggerate the danger from social instability, other important tasks, such as defending workers interests through vigorous trade union work, will be forced to take a backseat. Paradoxically then, in the long-run, a more equitable and “socially harmonious” society will be put on hold if current threats are exaggerated.
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